The U.S. government has been declared insolvent by the Treasury Department, according to its consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025. The report shows total assets of $6.06 trillion against liabilities of $47.78 trillion as of September 30, 2025, a stark financial picture that has largely gone unnoticed in the media.

Importantly, the $47.78 trillion in reported liabilities does not include the unfunded obligations of social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare — those are disclosed separately in the off-balance-sheet Statement of Social Insurance (SOSI).

The government’s consolidated balance sheet position, excluding the SOSI, deteriorated by nearly $2.07 trillion between FY 2024 and FY 2025, reaching a staggering negative $41.72 trillion. Total liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. The largest drivers were a $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable (now $30.33 trillion) and a $438.8 billion increase in federal employee and veteran benefits payable (now $15.47 trillion). Continue reading →

The National Debt Isn’t $39 Trillion. One Economist Says It’s Actually $100 Trillion

We all saw it coming and its finally here

The U.S. national debt is nearly $39 trillion. One of the country’s top fiscal economists says the real number is closer to $100 trillion — and that Washington’s own accounting rules are designed to hide it. (As this went to press, the national debt clock stood at $38.92 trillion, per Treasury data.)

According to Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and one of the country’s most respected fiscal economists, that $39 trillion number is a polite fiction. The real tab, he argues, is closer to $100 trillion.

It has to do with the accounting distinction between explicit obligations — legally binding debts the government must repay — and implicit “pay-as-you-go” obligations — expected future spending commitments that carry moral or political, but not legal, force. “What we call implicit obligations are twice the size of explicit obligations… (Continue to full article)

Thanks To The War In Iran, A Moment Of Reckoning Has Arrived For The Entire Global Economy

A worst-case scenario could be just weeks away. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been essentially paralyzed by the war with Iran, and there is a lot of speculation that the Houthis could soon bring commercial traffic through the Red Sea to a screeching halt. If such a scenario actually materializes, it would be catastrophic for the global economy.

The good news is that so far we are not witnessing widespread panic among investors. Most of them still seem to believe that this crisis is just temporary. So even though the price of oil is up over 40 percent since the start of the war, the overall global financial system is still relatively stable at this stage…

If the price of oil surpasses $150 a barrel and stays there for an extended period of time, it will cause widespread panic.

What investors would really like to see is an end to the war, but an end to the war is not even on the horizon at this stage… (Continue to full article)

I feel quite exasperated right now. Everyone knows that the economic numbers that federal bureaucrats in Washington are feeding us each month are fraudulent. It has been that way for a very long time. The employment numbers are a perfect example of this. Every month they give us a headline number that looks pretty good, and then months later they revise it much lower when nobody is paying attention.

That is the game they want to play, and many of us understand that. But this latest stunt that they have pulled is absolutely astounding. More than a million U.S. jobs suddenly disappeared from the numbers, and they would like us to believe that this is perfectly normal.

How are we supposed to have any faith in the numbers that the BLS releases each month if they are off by this much? Continue reading →

Das ist nicht goodenzee! Das ist Shiza!

Das ist zer Weimar Republic or America?

America’s republic will soon be riding a massive economic Leviathan while holding a tiger by the tail, that breaks the limits of an ordinary man’s imagination and stretches the limits of logic and reason, once one looks at the hard, empirical data, a thing I am most often loathe to do, if simply because the topic has a tendency to put people to sleep. But what the American society is about to experience over the next decade is unlike anything man has experienced over the course of human history, and if one manages to survive it, in any good fashion, it will be because they recognized the warning signs and prepared well in advance of the catastrophe. Continue reading →